As competition intensifies in Canada’s wireless market the three new entrants – Mobilicity, Wind Mobile and Public Mobile – have a long and complicated battle ahead of them. Not all are expected to survive, at least in their current form.

Several of the new Canadian mobile operators that acquired spectrum in the country’s 2008 auctions switched on their first mobile networks in the first half of the year and have reported early subscriber numbers. According to the latest Wireless Intelligence research, new market entrants WIND Mobile (Globalive), Public Mobile and Mobilicity have all launched services using the new spectrum so far this year, while Quebecor’s Videotron subsidiary and cable firm Shaw Communications are scheduled to launch soon. While the new players have yet to report significant customer numbers, Canada’s three incumbent operators – Rogers, Bell Mobility and Telus – are already developing counter strategies in response to the new competition.

The most significant new player is WIND Mobile, backed by Egypt’s Orascom Telecom, which holds spectrum covering every part of the country with the exception of Quebec. WIND switched on its first services in Toronto in December 2009, and has subsequently launched in Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Vancouver. The operator is expected to publish subscriber numbers on 12 August and – following some bullish recent comments from its chairman – it is thought that WIND will have hit the 100,000 connections mark by early July. This would give the new operator almost a 0.5 percent share of the total Canadian mobile market, according to our data (see table). WIND is targeting 1.5 million subscribers within three years from launch with a long-term target of 3.5 million

Wind is showing ‘encouraging’ signs, says Wireless Intelligence, while Mobilicity and Public Mobile have modest sales. However, another analyst says those two startups are doing better.

Wireless startup Wind Mobile has signed up about 100,000 subscribers in just under seven months of operations, an industry analyst estimates, suggesting early teething problems haven’t hindered its debut.

“It’s expected they crossed the 100,000 mark some point around the beginning of July, maybe the first week or two,” said Will Croft, an analyst with British-based Wireless Intelligence, which tracks wireless carriers around the world. It is also a unit of the GSM Association, an industry group for carriers using the GSM/HSPA wireless standard.